In this section you'll find the latest Investment Clock views and positioning, Investment Clock insights and blogs, and a library of economic updates from the multi asset team.
Investment clock positioning
As at February 2024. Source: RLAM. For illustrative purposes only. Trail shows monthly readings based on global growth and inflation indicators. Yellow dot is the current reading.
From ‘Stagflation’ to ‘Spikeflation’
We expect headline inflation to fall but see a new regime characterised by periodic spikes in inflation and short boom-bust cycles. Higher rates make cash attractive, but it remains a poor long-term investment.
We build resilience by diversifying broadly, with real assets like equities and property, inflation hedges like commodities and by holding less bonds when yields are low. In our most recent regular review, we added to bond exposure and increased global diversification.
Active management to navigate shorter cycles
Short business cycles argue for active day to day management. We benefitted from a positive tactical view in equities over most of 2023 as the macro backdrop proved resilient and remain overweight as technical support for the asset class continues to be strong.
We would not be surprised to see markets advance further over this year, especially if a soft landing scenario materialises, where inflation continues to ease in a way that lets central banks cut rates without a recession.
Commentary as at February 2024. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.