The Viewpoint: From game week to market week – the parallel life of an equity investor and Fantasy Premier League manager

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is a gloriously frustrating game that ruins weekends and friendships in equal measure, but it might have more in common with the stock market than most City analysts would care to admit.

Strip away the tribalism, turf, and terrible referee decisions, and you will find that both FPL managers and equity investors are doing similar things: chasing returns, sweating the small stuff, and blaming external forces when it all goes wrong.

And now the new season is upon us. If you’ve ever spent your Friday night debating whether to captain the established points machine Erling Haaland or gamble on a cheeky punt on a new striker in a promoted team, congratulations: you are dealing with some of the same behavioural processes and biases as equity managers.

Sure, the pressure’s different. Managing the money on which people’s futures depend is obviously more important. But FPL brings its unique stresses, such as a mocking from your pals for not transferring in your third striker during a double game week.

Let’s take a closer look at the curious parallels (and some key differences) between being an FPL addict and managing an equity portfolio.

1. The draft: picking a portfolio with budget constraints

Whether you’re handed a paper £100m in FPL or £10m in real life to manage, the challenge is the same: build a high-performing portfolio without blowing the budget.

In FPL, that means deciding whether to go big on Salah and Haaland or spread your funds more evenly. In investing, it’s choosing between stuffing your portfolio with technology mega-caps or backing a more balanced multi-sector mix. The psychology’s familiar: you want the star performers, but not at the cost of balance, risk control, or missing the next breakout mid-pricer.

Also, just like in investing, FPL managers love a good, underpriced asset. A £4.0m defender who somehow gets assists? That’s your AIM-listed growth stock with no revenue but a cracking story.

2. Form vs. fundamentals

FPL players obsess over ’form’ – the streaky striker who’s scored in four straight games and suddenly becomes un-droppable. Investors do the same: chasing momentum, buying whatever’s hot…until it’s not. The fundamentals usually win in the end.

But as any battle-hardened fund manager (or FPL veteran) will tell you: form is temporary, class is… well, still temporary if the next fixture is away at Liverpool. Still, the debate between short-term form and long-term fundamentals is as lively in FPL group chats as it is in investment committee meetings.

3. Fixtures vs. macroeconomics

In FPL, you plan around fixtures. You avoid players playing away to top-six sides or triple up on teams with a run of easy home games. In equity investing, it’s macro cycles: rate cuts, inflation peaks, GDP surprises.

Is Brentford at home to Sunderland the same as a dovish Fed pivot? Maybe not, especially when last season’s crown jewel has been flogged to Man Utd, but in both cases, you back the assets likely to perform in a favourable environment.

In both disciplines, timing is everything — and most people are still terrible at it.

4. The captaincy dilemma: concentrated bets

The captain’s armband in FPL is like putting 15% of your fund into a single high-conviction stock. Sometimes it pays off (cue Ollie Watkins hat-trick), sometimes it leaves you staring at a two-pointer and questioning your life choices.

The temptation to captain a differential is the same urge that leads investors to go all-in on an under-the-radar growth stock. The highs are high. The lows are existential.

5. The transfer market and portfolio rebalancing

FPL gives you one free transfer a week. More, if you’re reckless (or desperate). Investors, too, constantly rebalance their portfolios – selling underperformers, rotating into new opportunities, chasing themes.

But the cardinal sin in both worlds? Making changes based on emotion. In FPL, that means rage-transferring out Bruno Fernandes because he blanked. In investing, it’s selling out of a quality name after a bad quarter. You regret it either way, usually when they bounce back immediately after you let them go.

6. Differentials: the small caps of fantasy football

FPL managers love a differential – the low-ownership player who, if he hauls, gives you the edge. That’s your micro-cap, your obscure emerging market ETF, your moonshot.

Most of the time, they flop. But when they hit… oh, the glory. For FPL players, it’s like captaining Pedro Neto the week he gets a brace. For investors, it’s backing Nvidia in 2015. Stories you dine out on for years.

7. The wildcard: your rare opportunity to reset

In FPL, you get a wildcard which is really just a get-out-of-jail-free card to reset your whole team. Investors dream of this. Wouldn’t it be grand to ditch that dog of a stock, those regrettable punts, and start fresh without real-world consequences?

Alas, real investing offers no wildcard. Only regrets and mean reversion.

8. The community effect: herd behaviour

Scroll through FPL Twitter or Reddit and you’ll find thousands of players agonising over the same dilemmas, parroting the same hot takes, and building eerily similar teams.

Sound familiar? Investors, too, are highly susceptible to groupthink. Whether it’s the great FAANG rotation or a global pivot to AI, the herd mentality is real – and it can be costly when the music stops.

9. Luck: the invisible hand

Sometimes your FPL week is wrecked by a 98th-minute own goal or a dubious VAR offside. In markets, it’s the earnings beat that gets ignored, or the geopolitical headline that tanks your best idea.

You can do all the analysis in the world (expected goals, forecast earnings), but sometimes luck just isn’t on your side. Both FPL managers and investors eventually learn to mutter the same resigned mantra: “It was the right decision at the time.”

10. End-of-season rankings vs. annualised returns

Come May, FPL players scramble to hit their rank goals: top 100k, top 10k, win the work mini league. Investors do the same: keeping clients happy, beating benchmarks, outperforming peers.

Both are judged on results, not process. But smart players and investors know that good process leads to good outcomes — eventually. Most of the time.

Final whistle

So, what can we learn from all this? That fantasy football is just equity investing with shin pads? That fund managers should be graded on expected value per transfer? That we should consider launching an FPL-themed ETF?

Not quite. But there is something oddly reassuring about how the same human biases – overconfidence, fear of missing out, chasing past performance – show up whether you’re backing Bukayo Saka or buying shares in AstraZeneca.

Whether you’re tweaking your FPL team at 11:28 on a Saturday morning or stress-testing your portfolio against a surprise rate hike, you’re doing the same dance: trying to make smart decisions in a world of uncertainty, noise, and the occasional red card.

And perhaps that’s why we keep coming back. Because, deep down, whether it’s football or finance, we all believe next week will be better. The captain will haul. The stock will rally. The dream is still alive.

Just don’t ever triple-captain a defender. Or buy WeWork again.

The above article is written from the perspective of the portfolio manager, and the players are reference for illustrative purposes.

For professional investors only. This material is not suitable for a retail audience. Capital at risk. This is a financial promotion and is not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Reference to any security is for information purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.

The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change. Forward looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties,  Actual outcomes may be materially different from those expressed or implied.