Waiting on a recession, hunting for yield - Outlook 2024

Should you be dovish or bullish gilts?

Looking to next year, there are multiple events we need to consider when trying to predict how markets will react: there is a lot of supply coming; there is an expectation where the increased volatility seen this past year may well continue. Given this, it is easy to present a case to be positive or negative on gilts. Government bond markets find themselves at a really interesting juncture following this summer’s rally.

Generally, the Rates team is pretty downbeat on the UK economy’s prospects for next year. Our Senior Economist Melanie Baker feels the outlook is lacklustre with a technical recession still assumed in the next 12 months, but a modest one.

Read in full: Waiting on a recession, hunting for yield

The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.