Not expecting a banner year - Investment Clock Economic update

Activity growth has been more resilient than I anticipated. Still, I am not expecting the global economy to have recorded especially strong GDP growth in 2025 or to do so in 2026.

US tariff impacts are still winding their way through the US and global economy. As labour markets have cooled or pay growth slowed, support for consumer spending has also faded in some economies. Fiscal and/or monetary policy is set to be more supportive in a number of economies though.  My central case is relatively benign, but there remain plenty of sources of risk.

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