In this section you'll find the latest Investment Clock views and positioning, Investment Clock insights and blogs, and a library of economic updates from the multi asset team.
Investment clock positioning
As at November 2023. Source: RLAM. For illustrative purposes only. Trail shows monthly readings based on global growth and inflation indicators. Yellow dot is the current reading.
From ‘Stagflation’ to ‘Spikeflation’
We expect headline inflation to fall but see a new regime characterised by periodic spikes in inflation and short boom-bust cycles. Higher rates make cash attractive, but it remains a poor long-term investment.
We build resilience by diversifying broadly, with real assets like equities and property, inflation hedges like commodities and by holding less bonds when yields are low. In our most recent regular review, we added to bond exposure and increased global diversification.
Active management to navigate shorter cycles
Short business cycles argue for active day to day management. We held a positive tactical view in equities over most of 2023 as the macro backdrop proved resilient before moving to a more neutral position as improvements stalled.
We may add back to equities should investor sentiment remain depressed, but business cycle developments could tip the scales towards more defensive positioning.
Commentary as at November 2023. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.