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Our views 11 October 2023

Peak rates...probably - Investment Clock economic update

30 min read

Things look a lot better than feared at the end of last year, but global growth seems to be spluttering again amid a disappointing bounce in China activity, slow-to-no growth in Europe and against a backdrop of restrictive monetary policy.

The US still looks at risk of recession too, even if activity data to date has been fairly robust. Inflation has fallen a lot and, although higher energy prices threatened a revival in headline inflation, I expect other factors – including a soggy economic activity backdrop – to pull inflation lower. Policy interest rates have therefore likely peaked (or very nearly) in most major developed economies. There is more than one plausible direction the global economy could leap in next though.

Read in full: Peak rates...probably

The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.