After the shock – Investment Clock economic update

The outlook for the economy isn’t a static thing. Currently this feels truer than usual as the conflict in the Middle East is prompting a surge and fall in energy prices on a daily basis.

If we really are past the worst and oil prices stay at lower levels (a big if), then the economic effects are going to be smaller than we expected in April, as are the chances of interest rate rises. But things are not yet fully normalised and there is a risk of increasing escalation. Some of the economic impact (including on inflation) will come through with a delay. Meanwhile, we continue to anticipate a year of modest growth, with a still significant risk of rate hikes. Next year is shaping up to be stronger but there are plenty of risks.

Read in full: After the shock

For professional investors only. This material is not suitable for a retail audience. Capital at risk. This is a financial promotion and is not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.