Still set for a slowdown

Slowdowns look more likely than recessions this year. Trade policy pauses and reversals make that more likely. Fiscal policy looks set to be supportive in a number of places and rate cuts should help.

However, it remains hard to hold a central view with confidence: US tariffs are still set to end the year much higher than they started and the policy outlook remains highly uncertain. Evidence is mixed or incomplete on the impact that changes in tariffs are having on the global economy. There are significant upside and downside risks to the base case.

Read in full: Still set for a slowdown

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