CIO view: What has changed, really?

We can see that all predictions of high volatility have come true and yet the markets have not increased their risk premia.

The end of 2025 does not feel as different from the end of 2024 as we might have expected or hoped. Trade policies – and many other policies – from the US administration continue to appear with little warning, making it difficult to judge the state of global trade and of geopolitics. The war in Ukraine is still going on and despite lots of hope it is still not obvious how it will stop or be stopped. Governments, particularly in the West, continue to rack up large deficits and are stuck in a vicious cycle with their electorates. So, what has changed? Everything has gone up. Equities are hitting all-time highs, some credit spreads are at multi-decade tights and gold has continued to drive ever higher.

Read the CIO view chapter from our Outlook 2026:

What has changed, really?, by Will Nicoll

Download the full Outlook 2026:

Royal London Asset Managment Outlook 2026

This is a financial promotion and is not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.