Multi asset fund update: Patchy but better global growth with expectations of interest rate cuts this year

Our proprietary Investment Clock is further into its Recovery zone, indicating we are in the stage of the economic cycle when growth is improving (if slowly), and interest rates can begin to fall later this year as inflation weakens.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see a soft-landing play out in the US; it has been the best performing major economy. Europe and China have patchier growth pictures but prospects for some improvement. Given this backdrop, we are positioned positively in our multi asset funds and have benefitted from an overweight position in equities over the last 18 months.

The Investment Clock

Has moved further into Recovery

Source: RLAM. For illustrative purposes only. Trail shows monthly readings based on global growth and inflation indicators. Yellow dot shows where we are in the cycle.

Cross asset

• Equities: overweight given a slowly improving macro environment and signs of earnings growth.
• Commodities: underweight given a still soggy nominal global growth backdrop in China.
• Property: slightly underweight as the UK economy lacks positive momentum and interest rates are yet to fall.
• Government bonds: broadly neutral given more attractive yields now and interest rate cuts ahead.
• Credit: constructive, but watchful for signs of stress.

Equity regions

• Overweight US equities given superior economic performance in America, compared to Europe and China, and the strength of tech-related earnings.
• Overweight Japanese equities which have done well on yen weakness.
• Underweight UK, Europe given relative economic performance.
• Neutral on Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets given Chinese property debt issues and disappointing growth rates.

Currencies

• Underweight the US dollar as interest rates are likely to have peaked.
• Overweight sterling where rates are likely to stay higher for longer if (wage) inflation remains robust.

Sectors

• Overweight the interest rate sensitive consumer discretionary sector given rate cuts expected.
• Underweight energy and defensive utilities given we are not in a defensive period but growth is improving.
• Neutral on technology given elevated valuations (but not underweight given growth potential).

Where we stand

Overweight global and Japan stocks, and Discretionary sector

Underweight commodities, UL and European shares, and defensive sectors

Weightings may vary according to tactical asset allocation and the Fund may invest outside of indicated asset classes as the managers see fit. The views expressed are the author's own and do not constitute investment advice.

Source: RLAM. Tactical positions as at 28 March 2024.

This is a financial promotion and is not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.