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Stagnation signals from the PMIs

23rd August 2022

Commenting on today’s PMIs, Melanie Baker, Senior Economist at Royal London Asset Management, said:

“The UK composite PMI moved closer to levels associated with falls in economic activity. Cost-of-living pressures are likely weighing on new business and manufacturing firms are being hit by a mix of supply and demand constraints.

“A UK recession continues to look likely in my view around the turn of the year, especially as households struggle under the burden of substantially higher energy bills. Fiscal policy though, still has the potential to alter the probability of a downturn.”


The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.